My guess is hazing from the mf applicator. In my experience, It's so easy to micro-mar or haze with microfiber by hand when doing focused abraiding. I'd try some polish on a foam applicator, making sure to apply even pressure across the pad. Maybe even pick up a hand-applicator backing plate (or whatever those are called).
But do I risk applying some pressure when polishing the spot again?
In my opinion the damage is already done if the clear isn't just hazed or marred. If you have compromised it from the scratch x then it's too late and can't hurt trying to go harder with the polish. The spot may increase in size if the clear is thinning out in the area though.
You are committed at this point, try polishing it out by hand.
The best way to do work by hand it with your palm and not using finger pressure. Dont be afraid to do a light application of ultimate compound with a MF applicator. Just take it slow, use enough pressure to create a bit of friction and stop after 30 seconds or so and inspect.
It does look like you burned through the clear. I had a black Nissan that was burned through in an area the dealership tried to "spot fix." It looked identical to your photo. The dealership paid for a re-paint....
My suggestion would to go over the spot with some Megs #7 followed by Megs #26.
Hard to burn clear with scratch-x, but one must take three factors into consideration
1.) This is a Honda and Honda's have soft paint
2.) Honda's apply very few microns of paint (average 80-90 microns)
3.) This was on a plastic bumper cover which cannot disperse heat like sheet metal can.
Follow the above suggestions, #7 & then #26. Odds these two applications will diminish the unsightliness and or remedy the situation.
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