No chance of prices dropping like that. There's some speculation built into the price of oil, but the underlying fundamentals are sound. This is a supply/demand issue of epic proportions.
In the face of massive growth from China and India, global oil production has been essentially stagnant for three years. More buyers + stagnant supply = higher prices. Ergo, this is a supply/demand issue:
So we need more supply. Where will it come from? We've been finding less and less oil for decades:
So unless a lot of new production comes online yesterday and/or severe demand destruction occurs, prices will continue to rise. A $5 gallon of gas will look like a bargain in a few years.
Here's a link to some current analysis on the issue:
The Oil Drum | Peak Oil Overview - June 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available)
And some media:
The Oil Drum | Peak Oil Media: "Humans > Yeast?", Moyers, Kunstler, Rubin, Olbermann & Krugman